“Soybean War”: China Admits to Buying More from the US, Putting Brazilian Sales at Risk

Amid a dispute between Brazil and the United States over the Chinese soybean market , China's ambassador to Washington, Xie Feng, advocated expanding the Sino-American partnership in the sector. Currently, Brazilian soybeans meet about 70% of the Asian country's demand, while the United States supplies just over 20%.

“In soybeans, we can see the mutually beneficial nature of the economic and trade relationship between China and the US,” Xie said on Friday (22), during a breakfast meeting attended by representatives from both countries, in the American capital. “This cooperation has benefited both our countries and the entire world. We need more, not less.”

The event was organized by the U.S. Soybean Export Council and the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Food, Native Products and Animal By-Products, with the participation of industry associations, agricultural companies and Chinese and American academics.

"As the world's largest importer and exporter of agricultural products, respectively, China and the US are natural partners. For years, China remained the main destination for American agricultural products, and half of all American soybeans exported were sold to China," the ambassador recalled.

China is the world's largest consumer market and the leading importer of soybeans, accounting for 61.1% of all purchases of the oilseed on the global market. This volume is explained by the country's heavy use of the input in animal feed production for pig and poultry farming. Only 15% of Chinese demand is met by domestic production, with 85% of the total dependent on imported grains.

Last year, according to the General Administration of Customs of China, the country spent US$52.8 billion on the import of 105.03 million tons of the commodity, of which 74.6 million, or 71.1% of the total, came from Brazil, and 22.1 million (22%), from the United States.

Without mentioning US President Donald Trump by name, Xie said that "agriculture should not be politicized, and farmers should not pay the cost of the trade war" and that "rising protectionism has undoubtedly cast a shadow over our agricultural cooperation."

"In the first half of this year, U.S. agricultural exports to China fell 53% year-over-year, and soybean shipments fell 51%. After the confusion and chaos of plowing season, our fellow farmers may soon face new uncertainties at harvest time," the Beijing representative continued.

According to Reuters , amid trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, China has yet to import any American grain for the fourth quarter of 2025.

The ambassador also hinted that in the negotiations conducted by the countries for a trade agreement, sales of American soybeans to China could be a relevant chapter.

"China stands ready to work with the US to implement important common understandings between the two leaders, make good use of the economic and trade consultation mechanism, build consensus, clarify misunderstandings, and strengthen cooperation, so as to jointly share development dividends and return to the right track of win-win cooperation."

He concluded his speech by advocating for mutual collaboration "from precision agriculture to biotechnology, and from water-saving irrigation to smart farming." "Let's explore more opportunities together and seek win-win outcomes so that our agricultural cooperation continues to flourish and grow healthily," he concluded.

Chinese tariff on US soybean imports could be included in trade agreement between countries

The United States and China are currently in the midst of a truce in a trade dispute that began shortly after Trump took office, leading to an unprecedented escalation of reciprocal tariff barriers announced by both countries.

On May 12, Washington and Beijing agreed to reduce tariffs for a period of 90 days. This temporarily reduced the tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%. Meanwhile, the tariff imposed by China on American goods was reduced from 125% to 10%.

Two days before the August 10 deadline for suspending tariffs, Trump publicly called on China to "quickly quadruple" its purchases of American soybeans. The statement came just four days after the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian products went into effect.

Although the US president did not mention Brazil in the post, an increase in purchases of American soybeans by China would directly imply a reduction in the share of Brazilian soybeans, its main competitor.

A day after Trump's statement, China and the United States extended the temporary reduction of reciprocal tariffs for another 90 days , until November 12, while they negotiate a trade agreement.

On the 19th, American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland sent a letter to the White House thanking Trump for his remarks. "Unfortunately for our soybean producers, China has signed contracts with Brazil to meet its demand for the coming months, avoiding purchases from the United States," he wrote.

"Soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress. Prices continue to fall, and at the same time, our farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment," Reagland continued. "American soybean farmers will not be able to survive a prolonged trade dispute with our largest consumer."

At the same event where the Chinese ambassador spoke in Washington, Jim Sutter, president of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, expressed hope for a resumption of trade between the countries. "We look forward to getting back to a point where we can truly work together in mutually beneficial ways," he said, according to China Daily, a publication controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.

"I certainly believe [a U.S.-China trade deal] will be reached this year, but I don't know exactly when," Sutter added, according to the newspaper. "I think it would be very good if it were reached soon."

Brazil dominated soybean sales to China after US tariffs in Trump's first term

According to official Chinese data, the US historically met most of the Asian country's demand for soybeans until 2012, and from the following year onwards, Brazil began to surpass American exports.

Sales from the two Western countries remained more or less close until 2016, when the volume shipped by Brazil to China corresponded to 45.7% of Chinese purchases, while the US accounted for 40.4% of the Asian country's imports.

In 2017, Trump took office for his first term as US president, advocating tariffs on foreign products as a form of retaliation against countries for unfair practices toward the US. That year, Brazil's share of China's soybean imports rose to 53.3%, while the US share fell to 34.4%.

The big turning point, however, came in 2018, when the first round of tariffs on Chinese goods was effectively implemented. Beijing retaliated by taxing American products, and one of the main targets was agricultural commodities, particularly soybeans, the main American agricultural export to China.

With the new tariffs on US soybeans, Chinese importers began seeking alternative suppliers, and Brazil benefited, selling record volumes to the Asian country. That year, Brazil's share of the Chinese soybean market reached 75.1%, while the US held 18.9%.

In January 2020, the United States and China signed a trade agreement, called "Phase One," through which Beijing committed to purchasing additional volumes of American products, including a quota of $40 billion annually in soybeans for two years, totaling $80 billion.

Given the more competitive prices and high quality of Brazilian products, however, Asian importers failed to fully meet these targets. Between 2020 and 2022, China purchased approximately 73% of the target agreed with the United States, keeping Brazil's lead in soybean exports, although the gap with the US in shipped volume has narrowed.